Following on from the early look at the Randwick and Flemington meetings on Friday I’m now ready to finalise my plays of the day with the Saturday Update.
Fine weather in Sydney suggests Randwick will play perfectly well, if quite firm.
Flemington will be very firm albeit a fair surface. The major contributing factor to the pattern is the predicted northerly winds of up to 55km/h. This will make leading in the circle races difficult as it will be in their faces down the side of the course. Likely the most favourable position in running will be racing with cover somewhere near the speed.
FLEMINGTON – Race 5
In the preview yesterday I recommended a bet on THERMOSPHERE which is still the major play. One that catches the eye for saving in the race is CHICA FUERTE.
She ran well last start beaten 1¼ lengths by Cambourne. That colt went on to run well in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude to provide a nice form line for this.
Biggest concern will be the ability for horses to lead and win given the strong northerly winds predicted. Worth a small bet at the price of around $14 against a rating of $10 in my market.
FLEMINGTON – Race 6
A place in the Melbourne Cup is the added prize to the Group 3 Bart Cummings so we will see many horses presenting for realistically an early grand final before a freshen up for the Cup.
LORD BELVEDERE is the horse that interests me most. He is 4-from-4 at the track and distance since arriving in Australia including his last three.
This is a step up from those races but on the back of a career peak last start he is certainly capable of taking another step-in rating.
Plenty of quality opposition but he profiles well and is a nice play. Not convinced he will shorten dramatically but $6.50 more than a fair price.
FLEMINGTON – Race 8
PERFECT JEWEL looked home eight days ago at The Valley before being run down by the rejuvenated Mystic Journey.
It was a fabulous effort and she is clearly on top here. Although the barrier is certainly a concern and she does not map kindly. However, I like the profile of dropping back to 1400m on the quick back up as it should provide that required stamina late.
Some depth to the race, particularly if you are prepared to forgive Savatiano and Rubisaki but I would prefer to see them find some form.
Other than the map I would see Perfect Jewel being well backed. Still a nice edge on my $4 rating.
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RANDWICK – Race 7
Fuller preview provided yesterday where I spoke of the prime chance as STAR OF THE SEAS, my on top selection and VANNA GIRL the best roughie. Also adding BRANDENBURG to the equation who, like Star Of The Seas looks to get a perfect run just off a moderate pace.
His last start rating was not too far off what he did last preparation before presenting to the Doncaster fourth-up and starting $7.50.
Brandenburg can take a big step and does look worth speculating at around $17. Hard to see him firming much more having been around $26 earlier. Might be one to monitor and back late.
RANDWICK – Race 8
Analysed on the Friday Line but significant note – MUGATOO is one to monitor, his current price of $2.90 is below the price required. I would entertain backing him at $3.80+. Whilst this would alter the overall spend to above the 100% it is important not to be rigid when variables change. If he got to that point, I would be backing him for around the same stake as Zebrowski.
CHECK OUT THE PRO PUNTER’S FRIDAY LINE
PLAYS OF THE DAY (100 units)
Race 5 – No. 1 Thermosphere ($4.60) – 16 units
Race 5 – No.8 Chica Fuerte ($14) – 5 units
Race 6 – No. 5 Lord Belvedere ($6.50) – 12 units
Race 8 – No. 6 Perfect Jewel ($4.80) – 16 units
Race 5 – No.1 Dame Giselle ($2.70) – 26 units
Race 7 – No. 3 Star Of The Seas ($5) – 10 units
Race 7 – No. 6 Brandenburg ($18) – 3 units
Race 7 – No. 20 Vanna Girl ($19) – 4 units
Race 8 – No. 18 Zebrowski ($18) – 8 units
Race 8 – *Read note above re Mugatoo (2) if $3.80+
** Prices correct at 8am Saturday
Originally published asThe Pro Punter Saturday Line
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